Autonomous Vehicles

The Unanswered Questions of Autonomous Vehicles

The impact of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will go well beyond transport systems. This paper from the Institute for Driverless Transport identifies 65 questions we still need answers to.

Key Takeaways

Split into 5 areas:

1. Economics & Productivity.
   • Service Costs, e.g., under what conditions will people prefer owning or exclusively leasing an AV to renting on a ride-by-ride basis from a fleet operator?
   • Supply Chain & Competition
   • Economic Disruption
   • Public Sector, e.g., how would various options for taxing autonomous journeys affect public revenue, travel choices and who pays?
2. Social Change
   • Access & Inclusion, e.g. Which groups stand to gain most freedom or independence from AVs as a transport option?
   • Public-Private Transport Mix, e.g. Which factors determine whether congestion is made worse or better by AVs?
   • Trust & Safety, e.g. How will pedestrians and cyclists interact with AVs?
   • Pattern of Life, e.g. How will access to AVs change where people choose to live, work and spend their free time?
   • Built Environment, e.g. How do AVs change kerb and land use in dense urban environments?
3. Job Displacement
   • Current Professional Drivers
   • Continuing Human Roles
   • Wider Labour Market
   • Transition Support
4. Security & Geopolitics
   • Sovereignty & National Security, e.g. Will Britain become dependent on AV services for any key activities and what fallback options will exist if a supplier fails or withdraws?
   • Systemic Risks, e.g, What are the effects of market concentration on the resilience of AV-based transport systems?
   • Lifetime Support & Assurance, e.g. What must suppliers provide so fleets can stay safe and usable throughout a vehicle’s life?
   • Crime & Policing
   • Privacy & Data
   • International Cooperation
5. Speed of Rollout
   • Regulation & Assurance, e.g. How do we best balance regulatory friction with improved service quality from closer regulatory oversight?
   • Investment
   • Path to Scale, e.g. Which policy decisions will have the greatest impact on AV uptake by sector?
   • Wider Impacts

Comment

This is an excellent paper for considering the wider consequences of AVs. A key question for me is what actions we need to take now, beyond safety, even if evidence of the impacts doesn't yet exist.

I think there is a very high probability that AVs will have negative consequences for our transport systems, under existing regulatory settings where we subsidise motor vehicles (including AVs).

Reducing these subsidies for AVs through road user charges will become politically very difficult once AVs are rolled out at scale. Therefore, I believe that we should make these changes now (see this blog).

What Next?

Are you considering road user charges for AVs?

Transport Strategy

​Strong on Vision, Short on Accountability: Northern Ireland’s Transport Strategy

Northern Ireland has published its transport strategy. It has a lot of good elements to it.

Key Takeaways

• Four Strategic Priorities:

Resilient and Sustainable:

• Reduce the Carbon Impact of transport by switching fuels, shifting modes, and reducing journeys.
• Integrated transport and land use planning.
• Vision and Validate Approach to Transport Planning
• Behavioural Change
• Travel Demand Management: "The Department may also consider the potential role of pricing mechanisms, including road user charging, as part of a wider package of measures to manage demand, recognising that such interventions are only appropriate where viable alternatives are available."
• Parking
• Enforcement
• Reallocation of road space.

Supports Connected and Inclusive Communities:

• Inclusive transport, streets and places.
• Transport integration
• Regional Strategic Transport Network
• Road Network
• Embodied Carbon Emissions from Transport Infrastructure
• Resilience
• Ecologically Responsible
• Active Travel
• Micro-mobility
• Motorcycles
• Public and Shared Transport

Is Safe and Healthy

• Travel Safety, including road safety, safer journeys to school, 20mph limits, Ending Violence Against Women and Girls, and Railway Safety.
• Healthy Places, including Supporting Health and Wellbeing, Improving Air Quality, and Noise.

Supports Green Growth

• Transport and the green economy.
• Freight movements and economic growth.
• Gateways: Ports and Airports.
• Sustainability through Innovation, including Intelligent Transport Systems, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and Drones.
• Evidence-Based Decision-Making, including data, transport modelling, and transport emissions modelling.
• Zero and Low Emission Fuels, including Electric Vehicle (EV) Uptake, Alternative Fuels, Decarbonising Public Sector Fleets and Decarbonising the Rail Network.

Comment

The strategy has many strong elements, such as recognising the need to focus on mode shift and how girls and women experience the transport system. However, a good transport strategy includes a series of targets that drive accountability, both of public servants and politicians.

This strategy lacks targets and timescales, and many points are vague; for example, "The Department will increase investment in Active Travel to create a safe, connected, coherent network that is easy for everyone to use."

How much will investment increase and when?

What Next?

Does your transport strategy include clear targets and timescales?

Active Transport

E-Bike Subsidies Shift Car Trips, But Can They Scale?

There have been many e-bike incentive schemes around the world. This research looked at four different schemes.

Key Takeaways

• Oslo, Vienna, Saanitch and Denver all focused on raising bicycle mode share, and/or reducing carbon emissions through Point of Sale Discount and/or Post Purchase Reimbursement.
• All programs showed success in boosting uptake of e-bikes and e-cargo bikes, demonstrating their viability as everyday alternatives for utilitarian trips.
• All cities used iterative implementation, incorporating pilots, monitoring, and program evaluations to varying degrees.
• Policies diverge in spending budgets, program duration, and total numbers of subsidized e-bike purchases.
• Cross-city benchmarking of program effectiveness remains constrained by a lack of standardized evaluation metrics.
• While the programs demonstrate that e-bike subsidies shift individual travel behavior, available evidence does not establish the extent to which they advance the targets that justify their adoption.
• While the overarching policy objectives framing subsidy programs remained relatively stable, notable policy adjustments occurred at the operational level, where programs were rolled out iteratively.
• In Oslo, Saanich and Denver, municipal e-bike subsidies are broadly associated with lower user CO2 emissions, as recipients are more likely to substitute car trips. In contrast, the Viennese program, framed by the most ambitious modal shift targets, has not been evaluated for its modal impacts.
• The evaluated impact studies confirm earlier findings showing that car use is the mode most affected by e-bike adoption and there were larger reductions where initial car dependence is higher.
• The four cases do not constitute a representative sample from which to draw generalizable conclusions about the impacts of e-bike incentive programs.

Comment

Carrots to reduce car use, such as free or very cheap fares have proven to be largely ineffective. E-bike subsidies appear to be an exception.

However, it remains unclear whether e-bike subsidies can scale. Would they suffer from a law of diminishing returns and by how much as people who are already open to using an e-bike have already benefitted from the subsidy?

What Next?

Should an e-bike subsidy program be incorporated into your cycling strategy?

Quick Adventures in Transport Wonderland

Here is what else I came across this week:

• ​Reducing car use to support local climate goals: The potential role of small and medium-sized employers - this research looks at the role of employer led initiatives to reduce car use.
• ​Which bike-train integration strategy is most suitable in a city? A cost comparison using continuous approximation - this research looks at when the right solution for cycling first and last miles is putting bikes on trains, private parking or bike share.
• ​Travel Plans at a Turning Point - this survey looked at the effectiveness of travel plans for development in the UK. 85% thought they were just a tick box exercise.

Jobs

Jobs for Transport Leaders

​Here is a link with jobs around the world, specifically designed for transport leader readers. Use the filter to find jobs that match what you are looking for.